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MARKETS: Crude oil holds on to week’s gains after high inventories threaten rally
Monday, 21 June 2010

(EnergyAsia, June 21 2010, Monday) --- Market summary for week ended June 18, by Darrell Delamaide for Oilprice.com.

Crude oil futures held on to strong gains for the week in lacklustre Friday (June 18) trading, after higher-than-expected inventories earlier in the week threatened to cut short the rally.

At the same time, with the front-month July contract set to expire on Tuesday, analysts didn’t see much incentive for prices to move above current levels next week.

The benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract settled at US$77.18 a barrel on Friday, locking in a gain of 4.6% for the week, compared with US$73.78 a week earlier. The August contract, which becomes the benchmark on Wednesday, settled at US$78.26 a barrel.

The weekly inventory report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed crude stocks increased 1.69 million barrels in the week ended June 11, compared with the consensus forecast for a decline of 1.3 million barrels.

Futures markets initially shrugged off the report, and, spurred by a rising stock market, pushed prices up on Wednesday to a $77.67 high for the week. Doubts set in again on Thursday, and the price fell below $77 a barrel before recouping some of the ground on Friday.

A new report put out under the aegis of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the Paris-based grouping of industrial countries, purported to establish that increased trading by index funds did not contribute to price volatility in futures markets.

The report was authored by two Illinois university professors, Scott Irwin and Dwight Sanders, who have build an academic career on debunking the notion that speculation causes volatility. Not surprisingly, they found once again in their new study that there was “no evidence” to establish a link between large inflows of capital into commodity investment funds and increased volatility in crude oil prices.

The report comes as a conference committee in the U.S. Congress is putting the final touches on regulatory reform legislation that will impose limits on most futures positions.

The authors analysed data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission from 2006 to 2009 – a period in which crude oil prices shot up to $147 a barrel and then fell to $33 a barrel.

Even Gary Gensler, the CFTC chairman, expressed the opinion in congressional testimony during his confirmation hearings last year that the rapid growth of commodity index funds and increased hedge fund allocation to commodity assets contributed to the “bubble in commodities prices that peaked in mid-2008.”

 
MARKETS: US oil price rally stumbles Friday on negative economic news
Monday, 14 June 2010

(EnergyAsia, June 14 2010, Monday) --- Oil market summary for week ending June 11, by Darrell Delamaide for Oilprice.com.

After clawing its way back above $75 a barrel on Thursday for the first time in four weeks, the US WTI benchmark oil futures contract fell back again on Friday on news of an unexpected decline in retail sales in the US.

The end-of-week decline showed how feeble the rally was and how sensitive oil prices remain to economic news.

Oil prices were still ahead for the week, with the benchmark West Texas Intermediate settling Friday at $73.78 a barrel, after dropping 4.1% the previous Friday, the biggest single-day drop since February, to settle at $71.51.

A disappointing US jobs report hit oil prices last Friday, but better economic news in the US and some calming of economic tension in Europe allowed oil prices to gain three days in a row this week, peaking with Thursday’s close of $75.48 a barrel.

Friday’s report that US retail sales declined 1.2% in May, against a consensus forecast for a small gain, started the downward spiral. Ironically, the Reuters/University of Michigan index rose to a higher-than-expected 75.5 in June – its highest level in two and a half years – from 73.6 in May. Economists were looking for the index to hit just 74 in June.

But concerns about inflation in China and possible measures to curb that rise in prices kept downward pressure on oil. Chinese inflation in May rose to a 3.1% annual rate, a 19-month high and just over Beijing’s 3% maximum for inflation. At the same time, growth in China’s industrial production slowed to 16.5% in the month from 17.8% in the previous month.

China has the second-largest oil consumption globally after the US, so signs of slower economic growth in both big consumer nations turned oil investors bearish on Friday.

Earlier in the week, news that Chinese exports rose nearly 50% in May helped boost crude oil prices Also during the week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress that US economic recovery is on track and a double-dip recession is unlikely.

Those positive economic signs, combined with the second successive weekly decline in US oil inventories, spurred the gains through Thursday.

 
MARKETS: Analyst predicts global demand for solar PV to exceed 11.3GW in 2010
Tuesday, 08 June 2010

(EnergyAsia, June 8 2010, Tuesday) --- The global solar industry will see a “surprising” surge in demand in 2010, driving up prices in the first part of the year before quickly cooling off in 2012, said a senior analyst at GTM Research, the economic research and advisory arm for Greentech Media.

The world’s installed solar capacity will reach 17 gigawatts by 2013, said Shyam Mehta.

With impending cuts to Germany’s feed-in tariff, Mr Mehta expects a modest 11% increase in solar installations next year. However, new markets will emerge to help to offset the slowdown in the world’s largest solar market.

“Once the German feed-in tariff cuts kick in, life will be difficult. Past that, we expect higher but more steady growth in 2012 and 2013,” he said.

But which markets will emerge? Which technologies will win out in the long run? What companies will hold their ground?

These questions will be addressed by Mehta and other industry experts at Solarplaza’s 12th executive conference in Munich today.

“We are glad that top market analysts such as Shyam Mehta will take part in our conference to discuss the strategic implications of the surge in demand in 2010 and upcoming feed-in tariff cuts in Germany and Italy,” said Edwin Koot, CEO of the conference organizer Solarplaza.

“The question is: will the industry be able to enforce price drops of solar modules and systems after 2010 and will margin compression lead to the expected industry consolidation?” 

With the German feed-in tariff being scaled back, the solar industry could head for a shake-out in the coming years if not prepared. Expect big changes in the solar industry in the years to come, said Mr Mehta, who predicts an increase of 20% a year from 2012.

In a global recession, solar companies continue to tap new customers and race toward grid parity.

 
SINGAPORE: Oil trade hits new high of 4.43 million b/d in first quarter
Wednesday, 02 June 2010

(EnergyAsia, June 2 2010, Wednesday) --- Singapore’s trade in physical crude and major oil products reached a record high of 4.43 million b/d in the first quarter of this year, exceeding 4.22 million-b/d level of last year. All the growth came from the products trade which expanded more than 8% to 3.6 million b/d to offset the 7.5% drop in crude’s 823,805 b/d volume.

EnergyAsia will be publishing a special report on Singapore’s physical oil trade from 1998 to 2009. Please contact: This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it or Tel: 65-6438 0933.

The continued growth is helping to cemene Singapore’s position in the global oil trade, which is expected to continue into the decade ahead given the growing demand for energy in Asia and the Middle East. (US$1=S$1.4).

In value terms, Singapore’s physical oil trade came to nearly $37 billion for the quarter, compared with more than S$143 billion in 2009 and a record S$209 billion in 2008. Crude oil prices have held around US$70-$80 a barrel for most of the first quarter. In 2009, prices ranged between US$35 and US$80, while in 2008, they  kept mostly above US$100 a barrel.

Singapore’s crude import continued to decline in the first quarter, continuing a pattern of recent years as it has increased focus on its products trade. Singapore’s crude import fell 7.4% to nearly 824,000 b/d.  

Offsetting crude’s decline, Singapore’s product imports surged nearly 10.6% to  more than 1.9 million b/d while its exports rose 5.28% to nearly 1.7 million b/d.
 
More than a decade of high growth: 1998-2009

The total volume of crude and products traded through Singapore grew at an average 4.5% per year to reach a record of more than 4.22 million b/d in 2009 from 2.6 million b/d in 1998, according to data calculated from state agency International Enterprise Singapore (IES).

Oil products provided all the growth, more than doubling from 1.55 million b/d to over 3.33 million b/d for an annual average growth rate of 7.2%. The crude trade was little changed over the 11-year period, reflecting the lack of growth in Singapore’s refining capacity and the rise of direct trade between crude oil producing countries and consumers. With Asia’s economies continuing to grow, Singapore’s role in the oil products trade is expected to expand.

 
CHINA: International tanker shipping summit to be held in Shanghai from June 24 to 25
Monday, 31 May 2010

(EnergyAsia, May 31 2010, Monday) --- The ‘2010 International Tanker Shipping Summit (TISS)’, organised by CBI China, will be held in Shanghai, China on June 24 and 25.

The event is expected to attract over 100 decision makers from major oil importing and exporting nations around the world. It will provide delegates with a platform to exchange knowledge on the upstream market, outlook on tankers, oil prices and freight rates as well as developments in the tanker fleets of Russia and China.

While the global economy could gradually recover and boost demand for oil, the global shipping market may not follow suit as a result of high oil prices and the increase in the number of new ships. CBI China said it expects this year’s shipping market to fare better than 2009 with global petroleum demand expected to grow 1.5% to 2% this year.

The first 2010 International Tanker Shipping Summit held last September attracted delegates from China National Development and Reform Commission,PTT Public Company Limited,Thai Oil,Sinopec, Petro China,Unipec,Sk Shipping,China Shipping Development,Nanjing Tanker Corporation,Maersk Tankers,Dalian Ocean Shipping,Lloyd'S Register,ABS,DNV,Port Of Fujairah,Yangshan Shengang International Petroleum Logistics, HSH Nordbank, and Drewry Shipping.

 
MARKETS: Worldwide organisations unite with anti-piracy e-petition
Thursday, 27 May 2010

(EnergyAsia, May 27 2010, Thursday) --- “Enough is enough!”, says a petition launched on cyberspace last week demanding governments around the world take concrete action to end the increasing problem of Somali-based piracy threatening lives and global trade.

The e-petition www.endpiracypetition.org is backed by an unprecedented coalition of organisations including BIMCO, ICS, IFSMA, IMEC, IPTA, Intercargo, InterManager, International Group of P&I Clubs, INTERTANKO, ISF, ITF, IUMI and SIGTTO as well as national shipowners’ associations and trade unions worldwide.

The centrepiece of a new campaign to persuade all governments to commit necessary resources, the e-petition aims to generate at least half a million signatures to governments by IMO World Maritime Day on September 23 2010.

The e-petition appeals for countries to dedicate significant resources and work to find real solutions to the growing piracy problem; take immediate steps to secure the release and safe return of kidnapped seafarers to their families; and work within the international community to secure a stable and peaceful future for Somalia and its people.

Speaking on behalf of all the signatory associations, Spyros M. Polemis, president of the International Shipping Federation (ISF), said:

“We must encourage all governments to do everything necessary to protect the lives of seafarers who are subject to increasingly violent attacks, with over 1,800 kidnapped in the last two years alone. 90% of world trade is carried by sea and governments have a duty to extend the naval protection being provided - which is currently inadequate - and regain control of the Indian Ocean from a handful of criminals.”

David Cockroft, general secretary of the International Transport Workers’ Federation (ITF), said:
“With one click everyone can now make their feelings about piracy known, and then pass the link on to all their colleagues around the world who feel the same. In this way we can signal our belief that it is past time for all governments to do what has to be done to protect seafarers, ships and the goods that they carry and on which we all rely.”

 
MARKETS: Crude oil prices remain under pressure after dipping below $70 a barrel in week ending May
Monday, 24 May 2010

(EnergyAsia, May 24 2010, Monday) --- By Darrell Delamaide for Oilprice.com.

Crude oil prices ended just above $70 a barrel on Friday May 21 after dipping below that threshold earlier in the week ending May 21. The benchmark June contract for West Texas Intermediate settled at $68.01 before it expired on Thursday, after falling below $65 a barrel in intraday trading.

The decline from more than $87 a barrel reached earlier in the month is more than 20%, fitting some analysts’ definition of a bear market. Continued weakness below $70 a barrel could send prices tumbling further, into the $50 range, some analysts said.

Passage of financial regulatory reform legislation in the Senate Thursday evening ended most of the uncertainty about how severe measures might be, giving a lift to financial stocks on Friday, and other markets along with them.

The benchmark July contract settled at $70.04 a barrel on Friday, down from its $70.80 close on Thursday, compared with the benchmark price of $71.61 a barrel a week ago.

A continued slide of the euro against the dollar and persistent worries about the fiscal situation of Greece and other European countries continued to roil markets during the week.

Concern about the impact of the euro crisis on global economic growth exacerbated the situation for stocks, leading to a loss of 3% in US stocks on Thursday alone. An unexpected surge in the weekly US jobless claims figures – claims were up 25,000 to 471,000 when experts had forecast a decline – further spooked the equities markets.

In a global flight to safety, investors sought refuge in US debt securities, pushing down Treasury yields in spite of debate about the US deficit. In late Friday trading, 10-year notes were yielding about 3.2% and 30-year bonds 4.1% -- both at their lowest levels since last October. The 30-year bond yield actually dipped below 4% at one point.

Oil inventories continued to rise, according to the weekly report from the US Energy Information Administration, though less than forecast.

But the inexorable rise of stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma depot where Nymex oil is delivered continued to weigh on the benchmark contract. Stocks at Cushing rose another 917,000 barrels in the week, to a new record of 38 million barrels – which may be nearing full capacity according to some estimates.

 
SINGAPORE: Taylor Francis’s IES journal examines nuclear power potential
Friday, 21 May 2010

(EnergyAsia, May 21 2010, Friday) --- Publisher Taylor & Francis together with the Institution of Engineers Singapore (IES) recently discussed the potential of nuclear power in Singapore in their latest issue of The ‘IES Journal Part A: Civil & Structural Engineering’  (Volume 3, Number 1, 2010).

Written by Andrew Palmer, Seeram Ramakrishna and Hassan Muzaffar Cheema from the Department of Civil Engineering, National University of Singapore, the article, Nuclear Power in Singapore, examines the possibility and challenges of building and operating a nuclear power plant in Singapore.

Mr Palmer said: “Singapore has no fossil fuels of its own, and is an unfavourable site for renewable energy. At some point, the possibility of a nuclear power station in Singapore will need to be examined.”

The article also examines the constraints of having a nuclear power station and how these can be resolved in the light of successful nuclear developments elsewhere. It also considers the possibility of building underground and offshore plants.

The IES Journal Part A: Civil & Structural Engineering is an international peer-reviewed journal that provides a forum for the publication and rapid dissemination of original research and developments in civil and structural engineering.

Its papers cover a wide range of issues including structural, geotechnical, water resources, environmental, and infrastructure engineering. The journal includes mathematical formulations, novel methods and solutions in construction techniques, experimental investigations and practical applications. It maintains an international outlook whilst having a strong focus on primary research and development works from Asia.

The Institution of Engineers, Singapore (IES) was established in July 1966 as the national society of engineers in Singapore. 

Taylor & Francis is part of Informa, one of the world’s leading publishers of academic journals. It is dedicated to the dissemination of scholarly information, drawing on expertise developed since first publishing learned journals in 1798.

 
CHINA: Leaders discussed pipeline safety and operations at major conference in Beijing
Monday, 17 May 2010

(EnergyAsia, May 17 2010, Monday) --- The 2010 China Pipeline Summit, supported by the International Pipeline and Offshore Contractors Association (IPLOCA), and International Gas Union and Pigging Products and Services Association, last month brought together leaders from around the world to explore methods to optimise pipeline safety, said conference organiser Noppen Shanghai Co Ltd.

Held in Beijing on April 15 and 16, the conference provided a platform for speakers and delegates to exchange knowledge, strategies and technological solutions that can be applied to their business.

China is expected to add more than 50,000 km of oil and gas pipelines over the next 10 years to meet growing energy needs. With an existing network of 60,000 km, the pipeline industry is reaching a new stage in dealing with optimisation and safety issues.

Susan Miller from Enbridge International Inc spoke on pipeline construction, infrastructure expansion drivers and industry challenges in North America while China Petroleum and Petrochemical Engineering Institute’s Yang Jianhong discussed safety measures for China’s gas pipeline network.

The other speakers included Zhu Wenda (CNOOC Gas & Power Group Pipeline Center), Juan Arzuaga (IPLOCA), Bogdan Zbyszewski, Ken Fogh (ICAT Industries), Pierre Fillet (Trapil), David Zhou (Xtralis China), Wang Baojian (ALLU Finland OY), Feng Bin (China Petroleum Pipeline Scientific Research Institute), Zhou Yan (China Petroleum Pipeline Company Technology), and Dong Shaohua (PetroChina Beijing Huayou Natural Gas Co).

They covered a range of topics including regional gas network safety operation and construction, and a review and forecast of oil and gas pipeline transportation in China.
The sponsors of the 2010 China Pipeline Summit included Canusa-CPS, Trapil, ICAT Industries Inc, ALLU Finland Oy and Xtralis.

 
MARKETS: Crude oil prices drop further in week on Eurozone’s travails’
Monday, 17 May 2010

(EnergyAsia, May 17 2010, Monday) --- By Darrell Delamaide for Oilprice.com.

Crude oil prices plunged nearly 4% on May 14 Friday and were off almost 20% from their 18-month high less than two weeks ago, as the euro continued to lose ground against the dollar and US oil inventories continued to build.

The benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract settled at $71.61 a barrel on Friday, down $2.79 on the day, compared with $75.11 a week earlier, and the lowest price in three months. Oil prices hit an 18-month high of $87.15 on May 3.

The euro on Friday reached its lowest point against the dollar since October 2008, falling below $1.24 from just above $1.25 on the previous day. As the dollar strengthens, it puts downward pressure on oil prices.

Oil futures fell below $71 a barrel in intraday trading, and analysts now feel that prices may test the $70 threshold. OPEC has repeatedly said it would like oil prices to stay in a range of $70 to $80 a barrel, and the oil cartel might be prompted to cut production if prices fell below $70.

The buildup of inventories continued to weigh on the Nymex contract. The European benchmark, ICE’s Brent crude, which normally trades at a discount to WTI, settled at $77.18 on Friday.

The weekly inventory report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed an increase of 1.95 million barrels in oil stocks. In Cushing, Okla., the delivery point for Nymex crude, inventories rose by 784,000 barrels to a record 37 million barrels.

Last week’s oil price decline came in spite of an increase in the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for May. The index rose to 73.3 from 72.2 in April, indicating a possible pickup in demand.

Also on Friday, it was announced that US retail sales rose 0.4% in April, to $366.4 billion – the seventh straight month sales have risen.

Pressure on the euro continued even though European leaders last weekend agreed on a nearly $1 trillion package to back euro zone members and the European Central Bank reversed its earlier position and agreed to buy member’s government bonds to counter selling pressure in international bond markets.

While the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has seemed to have little direct effect on prices, President Barack Obama pledged that the US government would review its regulatory procedures for oil companies in the wake of the accident.

Earlier in the week, the administration said it would split up the government agency responsible for offshore drilling so that supervisory and enforcement responsibilities would be separate from leasing and revenue collection.

 
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