(EnergyAsia, June 8 2010, Tuesday) --- The global solar industry will see a “surprising” surge in demand in 2010, driving up prices in the first part of the year before quickly cooling off in 2012, said a senior analyst at GTM Research, the economic research and advisory arm for Greentech Media.

The world’s installed solar capacity will reach 17 gigawatts by 2013, said Shyam Mehta.

With impending cuts to Germany’s feed-in tariff, Mr Mehta expects a modest 11% increase in solar installations next year. However, new markets will emerge to help to offset the slowdown in the world’s largest solar market.

“Once the German feed-in tariff cuts kick in, life will be difficult. Past that, we expect higher but more steady growth in 2012 and 2013,” he said.

But which markets will emerge? Which technologies will win out in the long run? What companies will hold their ground?

These questions will be addressed by Mehta and other industry experts at Solarplaza’s 12th executive conference in Munich today.

“We are glad that top market analysts such as Shyam Mehta will take part in our conference to discuss the strategic implications of the surge in demand in 2010 and upcoming feed-in tariff cuts in Germany and Italy,” said Edwin Koot, CEO of the conference organizer Solarplaza.

“The question is: will the industry be able to enforce price drops of solar modules and systems after 2010 and will margin compression lead to the expected industry consolidation?” 

With the German feed-in tariff being scaled back, the solar industry could head for a shake-out in the coming years if not prepared. Expect big changes in the solar industry in the years to come, said Mr Mehta, who predicts an increase of 20% a year from 2012.

In a global recession, solar companies continue to tap new customers and race toward grid parity.